Don't Follow My Trades

Current Positions

Posted by twelve02 under Original Pages

Stopped out of ZSL on Friday for a small gain.

US Nat Gas Fund, UNG, price = $5.79 / No Stop, partial position

UltraShort QQQ, QID, price = $11.72 / No Stop, partial position

UltraShort S&P500, SDS, price = $24.20 / No Stop, partial position

Positions Update

Posted by twelve02 under Trades

I was stopped out of GAZ this morning, but added UNG before the close.

Both QID and ZSL were up nicely today, I need to move my stops up on both of them.

US Nat Gas Fund, UNG, price = $5.79 / Stop = $5.63

Current Positions

Posted by twelve02 under Trades

Ultra Short Silver, ZSL, price = $10.86 / Stop = $10.55

Ultra Short QQQ, QID, price = $11.72 / Stop = $11.61

UBS Natural Gas Total Return, GAZ, price = $8.48 / Stop = $7.98

Reading Resources

Posted by twelve02 under Resources

Here is a great list of books, courtesy of the great people at SMM…

Mentors’ Book List

Recommended Reading from Mentor Members:

(Books are listed alphabetically by author. Prices and availability are from Amazon.com)

1. Bollinger on Bollinger Bands by John A. Bollinger (Hardcover – Jul 27, 2001)
Buy new: $49.95 $32.9751 Used & new from $22.95

Not an easy read for the beginner but invaluable for understanding Bollinger Bands and associated trading systems. A book I keep coming back to. Submitted by: Bob

2. Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets, New Expanded Edition, (Paperback) by Michael W. Covel (Paperback – Mar 19, 2007)
Buy new: $17.99 $12.23
41 Used & new from $10.95

A personal favorite. A thorough explanation of one of the most successful trading techniques complete with “how to” explanation. Submitted by: Bob

3. The Complete TurtleTrader: The Legend, the Lessons, the Results by Michael W. Covel (Hardcover – Oct 9, 2007)
Buy new: $25.95 $17.13
50 Used & new from $5.51

Covel tells how a group of novice traders used a system that generated trades that were both different and right and made a lot of money. Best I’ve read on Turtle Traders. Submitted by: Bob

4. Come Into My Trading Room: A Complete Guide to Trading by Alexander Elder (Hardcover – April 19, 2002)
Buy new: $65.00 $40.95
59 Used & new from $24.74

5. Study Guide for Come Into My Trading Room: A Complete Guide to Trading by Alexander Elder (Paperback – April 24, 2002)
Buy new: $39.95 $26.37
36 Used & new from $18.73

I bought the book and audio CD then got the workbook. Submitted by: Ron

6. Sell and Sell Short (Wiley Trading) by Alexander Elder (Hardcover – May 5, 2008)
Buy new: $85.00 $53.55
35 Used & new from $43.00

“Sell and Sell Short” by Elder is a rehashment of “Come into My Trading Room”. The title is a bit misleading because the information you find in “Sell and Sell Short” can be found in “Come into My Trading Room” and the latter book is more complete. Submitted by: Joo

7. Study Guide for Sell and Sell Short (Wiley Trading) by Alexander Elder (Paperback – May 2, 2008)
Buy new: $40.00 $26.40
33 Used & new from $20.66

8. When Markets Collide: Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change by Mohamed El-Erian (Hardcover – May 23, 2008)
Buy new: $27.95 $18.45
47 Used & new from $14.94

All about the changing global economy. Analyzes the world of global finance. Not about stocks or trading directly but must know information for trading in today’s markets. Submitted by Bob

9. Way of the Turtle: The Secret Methods that Turned Ordinary People into Legendary Traders by Curtis Faith (Hardcover – Mar 9, 2007)
Buy new: $27.95 $18.45
61 Used & new from $12.38

Behind the scene stories and trading methods of the “Turtles” by one of the most successful traders. Submitted by: John

10. The Master Swing Trader: Tools and Techniques to Profit from Outstanding Short-Term Trading Opportunities by Alan S. Farley (Hardcover – Dec 13, 2000)
Buy new: $59.95 $38.97
61 Used & new from $22.95

The Master Swing Trader is not for beginners, and is a difficult read from cover to cover. It is written in more of a textbook style then your typical investment book. It is very technical but also very thorough, covering all the aspects necessary to become a successful short term trader. Submitted by: Andrew

Alan identifies specific times of day that show bullish or bearish tendencies. Also included are a bunch of setup patterns that Alan uses. Submitted by Rob

11. The Zurich Axioms by M Gunther (Paperback – Dec 7, 2004)
FREE at: http://neif.org/Zurich_axioms.pdf

It’s all about risk — only partially about trading. More a very astute observation about human tendencies about risk-taking. Submitted by: Dan

12. How Technical Analysis Works (New York Institute of Finance) by Bruce M. Kamich (Hardcover – Nov 26, 2002)
Buy new: $40.00 $26.40
34 Used & new from $18.75

One of the best “how to” tech analysis books I’ve read. Great for both the less and more experienced traders. Submitted by Bob

13. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Fraser Publishing 1980 paperback from original 1923 book by Edwin Lefevre and a unique character in investing lore who is considered one of the first true market speculators. During his fascinating career he made and lost fortunes Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is the thinly disguised biography of Jesse Livermore (Paperback – 1923) – Limited Collector’s Edition
2 Used & new from $23.99

Lefevre is often thought to be the pen name of Jesse Livermore, author of How to Trade in Stocks. The books are both very similar and cover pretty much the same Livermore methodology. There are also several later editions co-written by Lefevre and by Lefevre & Lowenstein. Submitted by: Lou

14. How to Trade In Stocks by Jesse Livermore (Paperback – Feb 17, 2006)
Buy new: $19.95 $13.57
51 Used & new from $9.50

15. Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications (New York Institute of Finance) by John J. Murphy (Hardcover – Jan 4, 1999)
Buy new: $85.00 $53.55
53 Used & new from $36.95

A favorite. Submitted by JulieS

16. How To Make Money In Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times or Bad, 3rd Edition by William J. O’Neil (Paperback – May 23, 2002)
Buy new: $14.95 $10.17
105 Used & new from $4.74

The handbook from Investors’ Business Daily founder. Submitted by William

17. Technical Analysis for Dummies by Barbara Rockefeller (Paperback – Mar 5, 2004)
Buy new: $24.99 $16.49
49 Used & new from $8.00

This is a good book for beginners. Explains the basics of technical analysis and indicators very well. Submitted by: Rob

18. Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by Van K. Tharp (Hardcover – Nov 22, 2006)
Buy new: $34.95 $20.97
48 Used & new from $18.33

I like this book because it stresses the importance of money management, position sizing, etc. Submitted by: Rob

A frequently used title. Nails what makes a winning trader successful. Recommended to me by Mentor JulieS. Submitted by Bob

19. Day Trade Futures Online (Wiley Online Trading for a Living) by Larry Williams (Hardcover – May 29, 2000)
Buy new: $35.00 $23.10
36 Used & new from $9.00

I got this book idea from fellow mentor Curtis as I was trying to get an insight into futures. It has lots of good stuff on initial futures strategies and also some good money management insights. One of the hardest things to do when considering futures is that due to the extreme leverage, they can be very daunting. I feel that reading how others have built strategies, implemented them, and protected them with money management makes it much less daunting and will allow me to start trading them. Submitted by: Wes

Having a Hard Time

Posted by twelve02 under Trades

I’m having a hard time on what positions to put on, everyone thinks that we’re due for a pullback and I agree, but everyone is usually wrong. I’m watching the Euro and it seems as though it’s trading in a range right now. I almost pulled the trigger yesterday to short it at 1.4445 and I didn’t, boy don’t I feel stupid. I just need to go with my setups and my gut, that’s usually the best way for me to trade. Put my stops in and let them do the work. I usually have good setups and entries, it’s my exits that need work.

JA Solar Holdings, Co., Ltd.

Posted by twelve02 under Trading Longs

I’m watching JASO a solar holdings company for a breakout. $6.40 has been resistance the last 2 times and if it clears that level, then I will be buying above and any pullbacks. Volume is picking up as well.

JASO

Holy Shit, it’s 2010 already

Posted by twelve02 under Original Pages

This is my 1st post for 2010. I haven’t posted much in 2009, but I did trade a bit. I discovered the futures market and will be writing about it here as well as ETF and stock trades.

Kass: 20 Surprises for 2009

Posted by twelve02 under General Finance

Without further ado, here is my list of 20 surprises for 2009. In doing so, we start the new year with the surprising story that ended the old year, the alleged Madoff Ponzi scheme.

1. The Russian mafia and Russian oligarchs are found to be large investors with Madoff. During the next few weeks, a well-known CNBC investigative reporter documents that the Russian oligarchs, certain members of the Russian mafia and several Colombian drug cartel families have invested and laundered more than $2 billion in Madoff’s strategy through offshore master feeders and through several fund of funds. There are several unsuccessful attempts made on Madoff and/or his family’s lives. With the large Russian investments in Madoff having gone sour and in light of the subsequent acts of violence against his family, U.S./Russian relations, which already were at a low point, are threatened. Madoff’s lawyers disclose that he has cancer, and his trial is delayed indefinitely as he undergoes chemotherapy.2. Housing stabilizes sooner than expected. President Obama, under the aegis of Larry Summers, initiates a massive and unprecedented Marshall Plan to turn the housing market around. His plan includes several unconventional measures: Among other items is a $25,000 tax credit on all home purchases as well as a large tax credit and other subsidies to the financial intermediaries that provide the mortgage loans and commitments. This, combined with a lowering in mortgage rates (and a boom in refinancing), the bankruptcy/financial restructuring of three public homebuilders (which serves to lessen new home supply) and a flip-flop in the benefits of ownership vs. the merits of renting, trigger a second-quarter 2009 improvement in national housing activity, but the rebound is uneven. While the middle market rebounds, the high-end coastal housing markets remain moribund, as they impacted adversely by the Wall Street layoffs and the carnage in the hedge fund industry.

3. The nation’s commercial real estate markets experience only a shallow pricing downturn in the first half of 2009. President Obama’s broad-ranging housing legislation incorporates tax credits and other unconventional remedies directed toward nonresidential lending and borrowing. Banks become more active in office lending (as they do in residential real estate lending), and the commercial mortgage-backed securities market never experiences anything like the weakness exhibited in the 2007 to 2008 market. Office REIT shares, similar to housing-related equities, rebound dramatically, with several doubling in the new year’s first six months.

4. The U.S. economy stabilizes sooner than expected. After a decidedly weak January-to-February period (and a negative first-quarter 2009 GDP reading, which is similar to fourth-quarter 2008’s black hole), the massive and creative stimulus instituted by the newly elected President begins to work. Banks begin to lend more aggressively, and lower interest rates coupled with aggressive policy serve to contribute to an unexpected refinancing boom. By March, personal consumption expenditures begin to rebound slowly from an abysmal holiday and post-holiday season as energy prices remain subdued, and a shallow recovery occurs far sooner than many expect. Second-quarter corporate profits growth comfortably beats the downbeat and consensus forecasts as inflation remains tame, commodity prices are subdued, productivity rebounds and labor costs are well under control.

5. The U.S. stock market rises by close to 20% in the year’s first half. Housing-related stocks (title insurance, home remodeling, mortgage servicers and REITs) exhibit outsized and market-leading gains during the January-to-June interval. Heavily shorted retail and financial stocks also advance smartly. The year’s first-half market rise of about 20% is surprisingly orderly throughout the six-month period, as volatility moves back down to pre-2008 levels, but rising domestic interest rates, still weak European economies and a halt to China’s economic growth limit the stock market’s progress in the back half of the year.

6. A second quarter “growth scare” bursts the bubble in the government bond market. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note moves steadily higher from 2.10% at year-end to over 3.50% by early fall, putting a ceiling on the first-half recovery in the U.S. stock market, which is range-bound for the remainder of the year, settling up by approximately 20% for the 12-month period ending Dec. 31, 2009. Foreign central banks, faced with worsening domestic economies, begin to shy away from U.S. Treasury auctions and continue to diversify their reserve assets. By year-end, the U.S. dollar represents less than 60% of worldwide reserve assets, down from 2008’s year-end at 62% and down from 70% only five years ago. China’s 2008 economic growth proves to be greatly exaggerated as unemployment surprisingly rises in early 2009 and the rate of growth in China’s real GDP moves towards zero by the second quarter. Unlike more developed countries, the absence of a social safety net turns China’s fiscal economic policy inward and aggressively so. Importantly, China not only is no longer a natural buyer of U.S. Treasuries but it is forced to dip into it’s piggy bank of foreign reserves, adding significant upside pressure to U.S. note and bond yields.

7. Commodities markets remain subdued. Despite an improving domestic economy, a further erosion in the Western European and Chinese economies weighs on the world’s commodities markets. Gold never reaches $1,000 an ounce and trades at $500 an ounce at some point during the year. (Gold-related shares are among 2009’s worst stock market performers.) The price of crude oil briefly rallies early in the year after a step up in the violence in the Middle East but trades in a broad $25 to $65 range for all of 2009 as President Obama successfully introduces aggressive and meaningful legislation aimed at reducing our reliance on imported oil. The price of gasoline briefly breaches $1.00 a gallon sometime in the year. The U.S. dollar outperforms most of the world’s currencies as the U.S. regains its place as an economic and political powerhouse.

8. Capital spending disappoints further. Despite an improving economy, large-scale capital spending projects continue to be delayed in favor of maintenance spending. Technology shares continue to lag badly, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD Quote – Cramer on AMD – Stock Picks) files bankruptcy.

9. The hedge fund and fund of funds industries do not recover in 2009. The Madoff fraud, poor hedge fund performance and renewed controversy regarding private equity marks (particularly among a number of high-profile colleges like Harvard and Yale) prove to be a short-term death knell to the alternative investments industry. As well, the gating of redemption requests disaffects high net worth, pension plan, endowment and University investors to both traditional hedge funds and to private equity (which suffers from a series of questionable and subjective marking of private equity deal pricings at several leading funds). Three of the 10 largest hedge funds close their doors as numerous hedge funds reduce their fee structures in order to retain investors. Faced with an increasingly uncertain investor base, several big hedge funds merge with like-sized competitors in a quickening hedge fund industry consolidation. By year-end, the number of hedge funds is down by well over 50%.

10. Mutual fund redemptions from 2008 reverse into inflows in 2009. The mutual fund industry does not suffer the same fate as the hedge fund industry. In fact, a renaissance of interest in mutual funds (especially of a passive/indexed kind) develops. Fidelity is the largest employer of the graduating classes (May 2009) at the Wharton and Harvard Business Schools; it goes public in late 2009 in the year’s largest IPO. Shares of T. Rowe Price (TROW Quote – Cramer on TROW – Stock Picks) and AllianceBernstein (AB Quote – Cramer on AB – Stock Picks) enjoy sharp price gains in the new year. Bill Miller retires from active fund management at Legg Mason (LM Quote – Cramer on LM – Stock Picks).

11. State and municipal imbalances and deficits mushroom. The municipal bond market seizes up in the face of poor fiscal management, revenue shortfalls and rising budgets at state and local levels. Municipal bond yields spike higher. A new Municipal TARP totaling $2 trillion is introduced in the year’s second half.

12. The automakers and the UAW come to an agreement over wages. Under the pressure of late first-quarter bankruptcies, the UAW agrees to bring compensation in line with non-U.S. competitors and exchanges a reduction in retiree health care benefits for equity in the major automobile manufacturers.

13. The new administration replaces SEC Commissioner Cox. Upon his inauguration, President Obama immediately replaces SEC Commissioner Christopher Cox with Yale professor Dr. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld. The new SEC commissioner recommends that the uptick rule be reinstated and undertakes a yearlong investigation/analysis into the impact of Ultra Bear ETFs on the market. Later in the year, the administration recommends that the SEC be abolished and folded into the Treasury Department. Dr. Sonnenfeld returns to Yale University.

14. Large merger of equals deals multiply. Economies of scale and mergers of equals become the M&A mantras in 2009, and niche investment banking boutiques such as Evercore (EVR Quote – Cramer on EVR – Stock Picks), Lazard (LAZ Quote – Cramer on LAZ – Stock Picks) and Greenhill (GHL Quote – Cramer on GHL – Stock Picks) flourish. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup announce a merger of equals, but Goldman maintains management control of the combined entity. Morgan Stanley (MS Quote – Cramer on MS – Stock Picks) acquires Blackstone. Disney (DIS Quote – Cramer on DIS – Stock Picks) purchases Carnival (CCL Quote – Cramer on CCL – Stock Picks). Microsoft (MSFT Quote – Cramer on MSFT – Stock Picks) acquires Yahoo! (YHOO Quote – Cramer on YHOO – Stock Picks) at $5 a share.

15. Focus shifts for several media darlings. Though continuing on CNBC, Jim “El Capitan” Cramer announces his own reality show that will air on NBC in the fall. At the time his reality show premieres, he also writes a new book, Stay Mad for Life: How to Prosper From a Buy/Hold Investment Strategy. Dr. Nouriel Roubini continues to talk depression, but the price of his speaking engagements are cut in half. He writes a new book, The New Depression: How Leverage’s Long Tail Will Result in Bread Lines. “Kudlow & Company’s” Larry Kudlow proclaims that it’s time to harvest the “mustard seeds” of growth and, in an admission of the Democrats’ growing economic successes, officially leaves the ranks of the Republican party and returns to his Democratic roots. Yale’s Dr. Robert Shiller adopts a variant and positive view on housing and the economy, joining the bullish ranks, and writes a new book, The New Financial Order: Economic Opportunity in the 21st Century.

16. The Internet becomes the tactical nuke of the digital age. The Web is invaded on many levels as governments, consumers and investors freak out. First, an act of cyberterrorism occurs that compromises the security of a major government (similar to the attacks this year emanating from the Chinese military aimed at the German Chancellery) or uses DoS against media and e-commerce sites. Second, a major data center will fail and will be far worse than the 1988 Cornell student incident that infected about 5% of the Unix boxes on the early Internet. Third, cybercrime explodes exponentially in 2008. Financial markets will be exposed to hackers using elaborate fraud schemes (such as liquidating and sweeping online brokerage accounts and shorting stocks, then employing a denial-of-service attack against the company). Fourth, Storm Trojan reappears. (Same as last year.)

17. A handful of sports franchises file bankruptcy. Three Major League Baseball teams fail in the middle of the season and seek government bailouts in order to complete the season. The Wilpon family, victimized by Madoff, sells the New York Mets to SAC’s Steve Cohen. The New York Yankees are undefeated in the 2009 season, and Madonna and A-Rod have a child together (out of wedlock).

18. The Fox Business Network closes. Racked by large losses, Rupert Murdoch abandons the Fox Business Network. CNBC rehires several prior employees and expands its programming into complete weekend coverage. Two popular CNBC commentators “go mainstream” and become regulars on NBC news programs.

19. Old, leveraged media implode. The worlds of leverage and old media collide in a massive flameout of previous leveraged deals. Univision and Clear Channel go bankrupt. The New York Times (NYT Quote – Cramer on NYT – Stock Picks) teeters financially.

20. The Middle East’s infrastructure build-out is abruptly halted owing to “market conditions.” Lower oil prices, weakening European economies and a broad overexpansion wreak havoc with the Middle East’s markets and economies.

Potential Trade Setups for me

Posted by twelve02 under Original Pages

Shorts

AZO
BA
CL
CNI
CNQ
COH
CVX
DO
HPQ
LH
MMM
MON
NKE
POT
QQQQ
TGT
UNP
UPS
VZ
WYNN
XOM

LONGS

APOL

APWR

AUY

BHI

BWA

CBS

CCO

FCX

AKS

KBR

MOS

Fear Meter

Posted by twelve02 under Investing

http://zignalsblog.blogspot.com/2008/10/s-moving-average-behaviour-revisited.html